1a. Prediction and forecasting

[hover: We work to advance the basic science and decision analysis of predicting emergence of infectious disease threats and forecasting their spread ][LINK TO PAGE INCLUDING:

Our research aims to assess and improve predictive power for outbreaks of new diseases, as well as forecasting of seasonal diseases.

We have an ongoing interest in questions of how to identify influenza strains in avian or swine reservoirs that pose a high risk of pandemic emergence. We have reviewed the state of the art in genotypic and phenotypic risk characterization and identified key areas of uncertainty in extrapolating virus traits to pandemic risk.

Seasonal forecasting work has also focused on influenza, incorporating strain and subtype dynamics, and environmental variables. Forecasting efforts per se are no longer an area of emphasis at CCDD as our collaborator Jeff Shaman at Columbia has established a major and successful effort in influenza forecasting. However, we maintain an interest in understanding the mechanisms of seasonality and fluctuations in infectious disease risk [LINK TO SEASONALITY PAGE]

Personnel: Lipsitch, Goldstein Collabs: Shaman