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SARS-CoV-2 Across Scales

2021/03/17 @ 4:10 pm - 5:10 pm

University of Colorado Boulder logoThis event will feature Stephen Kissler and be hosted by University of Colorado Boulder. Learn more about the event here. Join here with the password 747928.

Mathematical models have provided key insights into SARS-CoV-2 dynamics at the global, local, and physiological scales. I will summarize some of our research efforts within each of these contexts. Early in the pandemic, a deterministic multi-strain coronavirus transmission model revealed how SARS-CoV-2 could behave during its transition from a pandemic to a seasonally epidemic virus and allowed us to compare a variety of intervention strategies. As the racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality became clear, Bayesian inferential methods helped us demonstrate that poor health outcomes in New York City were associated with high community prevalence in neighborhoods where individuals could not stay home from work. Most recently, models of within-host SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics have allowed us to evaluate potential mechanisms for the increased infectiousness of the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7. I will discuss the mathematical and epidemiological aspects of each of these efforts and discuss how they provide important context for one another.