Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Optimizing prevalence estimates for a novel pathogen by reducing uncertainty in test characteristics.

Author(s): Larremore DB, Fosdick BK, Zhang S, Grad YHJournal: EpidemicsPMID: 36191537 September 2022

Emergence of a novel pathogen drives the urgent need for diagnostic tests that can aid in defining disease prevalence. The…

Test negative designs with uncertainty, sensitivity, and specificity

Author(s): Johnson EK, Kahn R, Grad YH, Lipsitch M, Larremore DBJournal: medRxiv June 2021

Test-negative designs (TNDs) can be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness by comparing the relative rates of the target disease and…

Concerns about SARS-CoV-2 evolution should not hold back efforts to expand vaccination.

Author(s): Cobey S, Larremore DB, Grad YH, Lipsitch MJournal: Nat Rev ImmunolPMID: 33795856 April 2021

When vaccines are in limited supply, expanding the number of people who receive some vaccine, such as by halving doses…

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys.

Author(s): Larremore DB, Fosdick BK, Bubar KM, Zhang S, Kissler SM, Metcalf CJE, Buckee C, Grad YHJournal: ElifePMID: 33666169 March 2021

Establishing how many people have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 remains an urgent priority for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Serological tests…

GPS-estimated foot traffic data and venue selection for COVID-19 serosurveillance studies.

Author(s): Brown TS, Martinez de Salazar Munoz P, Bhatia A, Bunda B, Williams EK, Bor D, Miller JS, Mohareb A, Naranbai V, Garcia Beltran W, Miller TE, Thierauf J, Yang W, Kress D, Stelljes K, Johnson K, Larremore DB, Lennerz J, Iafrate AJ, Balsari S, Buckee CO, Grad YHJournal: medRxivPMID: 33564784 February 2021

Tracking the dynamics and spread of COVID-19 is critical to mounting an effective response to the pandemic. In the absence…

Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus.

Author(s): Bubar KM, Reinholt K, Kissler SM, Lipsitch M, Cobey S, Grad YH, Larremore DBJournal: SciencePMID: 33479118 January 2021

Limited initial supply of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine raises the question of how to prioritize available doses. Here, we used a mathematical…

Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 screening.

Author(s): Larremore DB, Wilder B, Lester E, Shehata S, Burke JM, Hay JA, Tambe M, Mina MJ, Parker RJournal: Sci AdvPMID: 33219112 November 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. Because SARS-CoV-2 can spread from individuals with pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic…

Rethinking Covid-19 Test Sensitivity – A Strategy for Containment.

Author(s): Mina MJ, Parker R, Larremore DBJournal: N Engl J MedPMID: 32997903 September 2020

It’s time to change how we think about the sensitivity of testing for Covid-19. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA)…

Implications of test characteristics and population seroprevalence on ‘immune passport’ strategies.

Author(s): Larremore DB, Bubar KM, Grad YHJournal: Clin Infect DisPMID: 32687149 July 2020

Various forms of 'immune passports' or 'antibody certificates' are being considered in conversations around reopening economies after periods of social…

Longitudinal analysis of naturally acquired PfEMP1 CIDR domain variant antibodies identifies associations with malaria protection.

Author(s): Obeng-Adjei N, Larremore DB, Turner L, Ongoiba A, Li S, Doumbo S, Yazew TB, Kayentao K, Miller LH, Traore B, Pierce SK, Buckee CO, Lavstsen T, Crompton PD, Tran TMJournal: JCI InsightPMID: 32427581 May 2020

Malaria pathogenicity is determined, in part, by the adherence of Plasmodium falciparum infected erythrocytes to the microvasculature mediated via specific…