Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Simple decision rules to predict local surges in COVID-19 hospitalizations during the winter and spring of 2022.

Author(s): Yaesoubi R, You S, Xi Q, Menzies NA, Tuite A, Grad YH, Salomon JAJournal: medRxivPMID: 34931196 December 2021

Low rates of vaccination, emergence of novel variants of SARS-CoV-2, and increasing transmission relating to seasonal changes leave many U.S.…

Evaluating the reliability of mobility metrics from aggregated mobile phone data as proxies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA: a population-based study.

Author(s): Kishore N, Taylor AR, Jacob PE, Vembar N, Cohen T, Buckee CO, Menzies NAJournal: Lancet Digit HealthPMID: 34740555 November 2021

In early 2020, the response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, some of which aimed to reduce transmission…

The relationship between human mobility measures and SAR-Cov-2 transmission varies by epidemic phase and urbanicity: results from the United States

Author(s): Kishore N, Taylor AR, Jacob PE, Vembar N, Cohen T, Menzies NA, Buckee CJournal: medRxiv April 2021

Global efforts to prevent the spread of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic in early 2020 focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing;…

The Use and Misuse of Mathematical Modeling for Infectious Disease Policymaking: Lessons for the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Author(s): James LP, Salomon JA, Buckee CO, Menzies NAJournal: Med Decis MakingPMID: 33535889 February 2021

Mathematical modeling has played a prominent and necessary role in the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with an increasing…

Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking in New York City: Evaluation Study Using Reportable Disease Data From the Early Stages of the Pandemic.

Author(s): Greene SK, McGough SF, Culp GM, Graf LE, Lipsitch M, Menzies NA, Kahn RJournal: JMIR Public Health SurveillPMID: 33406053 January 2021

Nowcasting approaches enhance the utility of reportable disease data for trend monitoring by correcting for delays, but implementation details affect…

Evaluation of Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking – New York City, March-May 2020.

Author(s): Greene SK, McGough SF, Culp GM, Graf LE, Lipsitch M, Menzies NA, Kahn RJournal: medRxivPMID: 33106814 October 2020

To account for delays between specimen collection and report, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene used…

Nowcasting by Bayesian Smoothing: A flexible, generalizable model for real-time epidemic tracking.

Author(s): McGough SF, Johansson MA, Lipsitch M, Menzies NAJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 32251464 April 2020

Achieving accurate, real-time estimates of disease activity is challenged by delays in case reporting. "Nowcast" approaches attempt to estimate the…