Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Estimating vaccine efficacy against transmission via effect on viral load

Author(s): Kennedy-Shaffer L, Kahn R, Lipsitch MJournal: medRxiv May 2021

Determining policies to end the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will require an understanding of the efficacy and effectiveness (hereafter, efficacy) of vaccines.…

Estimation of Transmission of COVID-19 in Simulated Nursing Homes With Frequent Testing and Immunity-Based Staffing.

Author(s): Holmdahl I, Kahn R, Hay JA, Buckee CO, Mina MJJournal: JAMA Netw OpenPMID: 33988707 May 2021

Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have been disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Strategies are urgently needed to…

Decreased Infectivity Following BNT162b2 Vaccination

Author(s): Regev-Yochay G, Amit S, Bergwerk M, Lipsitch M, Leshem E, Kahn R, Lustig Y, Cohen C, Doolman R, Ziv A, Novikov I, Rubin C, Gimpelevich I, Huppert A, Rahav G, Afek A, Kreiss YJournal: SSRN April 2021

BNT162b2 was shown to be 92% effective in preventing COVID-19. Prioritizing vaccine rollout, and achievement of herd immunity depend on…

Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Author(s): Kishore N, Kahn R, Martinez PP, De Salazar PM, Mahmud AS, Buckee COJournal: Sci RepPMID: 33772076 March 2021

In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public's…

Mathematical modeling to inform vaccination strategies and testing approaches for COVID-19 in nursing homes.

Author(s): Kahn R, Holmdahl I, Reddy S, Jernigan J, Mina MJ, Slayton RBJournal: medRxivPMID: 33688668 March 2021

Nursing home residents and staff were included in the first phase of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States. Because the…

Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission.

Author(s): Lipsitch M, Kahn RJournal: medRxivPMID: 33655276 February 2021

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown high efficacy of multiple vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 disease (COVID-19), but evidence remains scarce about…

How to detect and reduce potential sources of biases in studies of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19.

Author(s): Accorsi EK, Qiu X, Rumpler E, Kennedy-Shaffer L, Kahn R, Joshi K, Goldstein E, Stensrud MJ, Niehus R, Cevik M, Lipsitch MJournal: Eur J EpidemiolPMID: 33634345 February 2021

In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, public health scientists have produced a large and rapidly expanding body of…

Variation in human mobility and its impact on the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan.

Author(s): Chang MC, Kahn R, Li YA, Lee CS, Buckee CO, Chang HHJournal: BMC Public HealthPMID: 33504339 January 2021

As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics, especially…

Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking in New York City: Evaluation Study Using Reportable Disease Data From the Early Stages of the Pandemic.

Author(s): Greene SK, McGough SF, Culp GM, Graf LE, Lipsitch M, Menzies NA, Kahn RJournal: JMIR Public Health SurveillPMID: 33406053 January 2021

Nowcasting approaches enhance the utility of reportable disease data for trend monitoring by correcting for delays, but implementation details affect…

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt.

Author(s): Gostic KM, McGough L, Baskerville EB, Abbott S, Joshi K, Tedijanto C, Kahn R, Niehus R, Hay JA, De Salazar PM, Hellewell J, Meakin S, Munday JD, Bosse NI, Sherrat K, Thompson RN, White LF, Huisman JS, Scire J, Bonhoeffer S, Stadler T, Wallinga J, Funk S, Lipsitch M, Cobey SJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 33301457 December 2020

Estimation of the effective reproductive number Rt is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus…