Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Decreased infectivity following BNT162b2 vaccination: A prospective cohort study in Israel.

Author(s): Regev-Yochay G, Amit S, Bergwerk M, Lipsitch M, Leshem E, Kahn R, Lustig Y, Cohen C, Doolman R, Ziv A, Novikov I, Rubin C, Gimpelevich I, Huppert A, Rahav G, Afek A, Kreiss YJournal: Lancet Reg Health EurPMID: 34250518 August 2021

BNT162b2 was shown to be 92% effective in preventing COVID-19. Prioritizing vaccine rollout, and achievement of herd immunity depend on…

Identifying and alleviating bias due to differential depletion of susceptible people in post-marketing evaluations of COVID-19 vaccines

Author(s): Kahn R, Schrag SJ, Verani JR, Lipsitch MJournal: medRxiv July 2021

Recent studies have provided key information about SARS-CoV-2 vaccines' efficacy and effectiveness (VE). One important question that remains is whether…

Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission.

Author(s): Lipsitch M, Kahn RJournal: VaccinePMID: 34130883 July 2021

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown high efficacy of multiple vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 disease (COVID-19), and recent studies have shown…

Test negative designs with uncertainty, sensitivity, and specificity

Author(s): Johnson EK, Kahn R, Grad YH, Lipsitch M, Larremore DBJournal: medRxiv June 2021

Test-negative designs (TNDs) can be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness by comparing the relative rates of the target disease and…

Mathematical modeling to inform vaccination strategies and testing approaches for COVID-19 in nursing homes.

Author(s): Kahn R, Holmdahl I, Reddy S, Jernigan J, Mina MJ, Slayton RBJournal: Clin Infect DisPMID: 34086877 June 2021

Nursing home residents and staff were included in the first phase of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States. Because the…

Leveraging pathogen sequence and contact tracing data to enhance vaccine trials in emerging epidemics.

Author(s): Kahn R, Wang R, Leavitt SV, Hanage WP, Lipsitch MJournal: EpidemiologyPMID: 34039898 May 2021

Advance planning of vaccine trials conducted during outbreaks increases our ability to rapidly define the efficacy and potential impact of…

Estimating vaccine efficacy against transmission via effect on viral load

Author(s): Kennedy-Shaffer L, Kahn R, Lipsitch MJournal: medRxiv May 2021

Determining policies to end the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will require an understanding of the efficacy and effectiveness (hereafter, efficacy) of vaccines.…

Estimation of Transmission of COVID-19 in Simulated Nursing Homes With Frequent Testing and Immunity-Based Staffing.

Author(s): Holmdahl I, Kahn R, Hay JA, Buckee CO, Mina MJJournal: JAMA Netw OpenPMID: 33988707 May 2021

Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have been disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Strategies are urgently needed to…

Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Author(s): Kishore N, Kahn R, Martinez PP, De Salazar PM, Mahmud AS, Buckee COJournal: Sci RepPMID: 33772076 March 2021

In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public's…

How to detect and reduce potential sources of biases in studies of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19.

Author(s): Accorsi EK, Qiu X, Rumpler E, Kennedy-Shaffer L, Kahn R, Joshi K, Goldstein E, Stensrud MJ, Niehus R, Cevik M, Lipsitch MJournal: Eur J EpidemiolPMID: 33634345 February 2021

In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, public health scientists have produced a large and rapidly expanding body of…