Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

How to detect and reduce potential sources of biases in studies of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19.

Author(s): Accorsi EK, Qiu X, Rumpler E, Kennedy-Shaffer L, Kahn R, Joshi K, Goldstein E, Stensrud MJ, Niehus R, Cevik M, Lipsitch MJournal: Eur J EpidemiolPMID: 33634345 February 2021

In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, public health scientists have produced a large and rapidly expanding body of…

Variation in human mobility and its impact on the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan.

Author(s): Chang MC, Kahn R, Li YA, Lee CS, Buckee CO, Chang HHJournal: BMC Public HealthPMID: 33504339 January 2021

As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics, especially…

Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking in New York City: Evaluation Study Using Reportable Disease Data From the Early Stages of the Pandemic.

Author(s): Greene SK, McGough SF, Culp GM, Graf LE, Lipsitch M, Menzies NA, Kahn RJournal: JMIR Public Health SurveillPMID: 33406053 January 2021

Nowcasting approaches enhance the utility of reportable disease data for trend monitoring by correcting for delays, but implementation details affect…

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt.

Author(s): Gostic KM, McGough L, Baskerville EB, Abbott S, Joshi K, Tedijanto C, Kahn R, Niehus R, Hay JA, De Salazar PM, Hellewell J, Meakin S, Munday JD, Bosse NI, Sherrat K, Thompson RN, White LF, Huisman JS, Scire J, Bonhoeffer S, Stadler T, Wallinga J, Funk S, Lipsitch M, Cobey SJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 33301457 December 2020

Estimation of the effective reproductive number Rt is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus…

Evaluation of Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking – New York City, March-May 2020.

Author(s): Greene SK, McGough SF, Culp GM, Graf LE, Lipsitch M, Menzies NA, Kahn RJournal: medRxivPMID: 33106814 October 2020

To account for delays between specimen collection and report, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene used…

Potential Biases Arising from Epidemic Dynamics in Observational Seroprotection Studies.

Author(s): Kahn R, Kennedy-Shaffer L, Grad YH, Robins JM, Lipsitch MJournal: Am J EpidemiolPMID: 32870977 September 2020

The extent and duration of immunity following SARS-CoV-2 infection are critical outstanding questions about the epidemiology of this novel virus,…

US-county level variation in intersecting individual, household and community characteristics relevant to COVID-19 and planning an equitable response: a cross-sectional analysis.

Author(s): Chin T, Kahn R, Li R, Chen JT, Krieger N, Buckee CO, Balsari S, Kiang MVJournal: BMJ OpenPMID: 32873684 September 2020

To illustrate the intersections of, and intercounty variation in, individual, household and community factors that influence the impact of COVID-19…

Individual quarantine versus active monitoring of contacts for the mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study.

Author(s): Peak CM, Kahn R, Grad YH, Childs LM, Lipsitch M, Buckee COJournal: Lancet Infect DisPMID: 32445710 May 2020

Voluntary individual quarantine and voluntary active monitoring of contacts are core disease control strategies for emerging infectious diseases such as…

Antibody testing will enhance the power and accuracy of COVID-19-prevention trials.

Author(s): Lipsitch M, Kahn R, Mina MJJournal: Nat MedPMID: 32341581 April 2020

Researchers starting clinical trials of prevention measures for COVID-19 have a unique window of opportunity for collecting blood from the…

Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study.

Author(s): Peak CM, Kahn R, Grad YH, Childs LM, Li R, Lipsitch M, Buckee COJournal: medRxivPMID: 32511440 April 2020

Voluntary individual quarantine and voluntary active monitoring of contacts are core disease control strategies for emerging infectious diseases, such as…