Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Evaluation of Nowcasting for Real-Time COVID-19 Tracking – New York City, March-May 2020.

Author(s): Greene SK, McGough SF, Culp GM, Graf LE, Lipsitch M, Menzies NA, Kahn RJournal: medRxivPMID: 33106814 October 2020

To account for delays between specimen collection and report, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene used…

Potential Biases Arising from Epidemic Dynamics in Observational Seroprotection Studies.

Author(s): Kahn R, Kennedy-Shaffer L, Grad YH, Robins JM, Lipsitch MJournal: Am J EpidemiolPMID: 32870977 September 2020

The extent and duration of immunity following SARS-CoV-2 infection are critical outstanding questions about the epidemiology of this novel virus,…

US-county level variation in intersecting individual, household and community characteristics relevant to COVID-19 and planning an equitable response: a cross-sectional analysis.

Author(s): Chin T, Kahn R, Li R, Chen JT, Krieger N, Buckee CO, Balsari S, Kiang MVJournal: BMJ OpenPMID: 32873684 September 2020

To illustrate the intersections of, and intercounty variation in, individual, household and community factors that influence the impact of COVID-19…

Variation in human mobility and its impact on the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan.

Author(s): Chang MC, Kahn R, Li YA, Lee CS, Buckee CO, Chang HHJournal: medRxivPMID: 32817972 August 2020

Background As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics,…

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt.

Author(s): Gostic KM, McGough L, Baskerville E, Abbott S, Joshi K, Tedijanto C, Kahn R, Niehus R, Hay JA, De Salazar PM, Hellewell J, Meakin S, Munday J, Bosse N, Sherratt K, Thompson RM, White LF, Huisman J, Scire J, Bonhoeffer S, Stadler T, Wallinga J, Funk S, Lipsitch M, Cobey SJournal: medRxivPMID: 32607522 June 2020

Estimation of the effective reproductive number, R , is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the…

Individual quarantine versus active monitoring of contacts for the mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study.

Author(s): Peak CM, Kahn R, Grad YH, Childs LM, Lipsitch M, Buckee COJournal: Lancet Infect DisPMID: 32445710 May 2020

Voluntary individual quarantine and voluntary active monitoring of contacts are core disease control strategies for emerging infectious diseases such as…

Antibody testing will enhance the power and accuracy of COVID-19-prevention trials.

Author(s): Lipsitch M, Kahn R, Mina MJJournal: Nat MedPMID: 32341581 April 2020

Researchers starting clinical trials of prevention measures for COVID-19 have a unique window of opportunity for collecting blood from the…

Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study.

Author(s): Peak CM, Kahn R, Grad YH, Childs LM, Li R, Lipsitch M, Buckee COJournal: medRxivPMID: 32511440 April 2020

Voluntary individual quarantine and voluntary active monitoring of contacts are core disease control strategies for emerging infectious diseases, such as…

Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone.

Author(s): Kahn R, Peak CM, Fernández-Gracia J, Hill A, Jambai A, Ganda L, Castro MC, Buckee COJournal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S APMID: 32054785 March 2020

Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains…

Rapid Forecasting of Cholera Risk in Mozambique: Translational Challenges and Opportunities.

Author(s): Kahn R, Mahmud AS, Schroeder A, Aguilar Ramirez LH, Crowley J, Chan J, Buckee COJournal: Prehosp Disaster MedPMID: 31477186 September 2019

Disasters, such as cyclones, create conditions that increase the risk of infectious disease outbreaks. Epidemic forecasts can be valuable for…