Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Optimal environmental testing frequency for outbreak surveillance.

Author(s): Olejarz JW, Roster KIO, Kissler SM, Lipsitch M, Grad YHJournal: EpidemicsPMID: 38394927 March 2024

Public health surveillance for pathogens presents an optimization problem: we require enough sampling to identify intervention-triggering shifts in pathogen epidemiology,…

Comparison of the test-negative design and cohort design with explicit target trial emulation for evaluating Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness.

Author(s): Li G, Gerlovin H, Figueroa Muñiz MJ, Wise JK, Madenci AL, Robins JM, Aslan M, Cho K, Gaziano JM, Lipsitch M, Casas JP, Hernán MA, Dickerman BAJournal: EpidemiologyPMID: 38109485 March 2024

Observational studies are used for estimating vaccine effectiveness under real-world conditions. The practical performance of two common approaches - cohort…

Estimated excess deaths due to COVID-19 among the urban population of Mainland China, December 2022 to January 2023.

Author(s): Raphson L, Lipsitch MJournal: EpidemiologyPMID: 38300113 January 2024

Mainland China experienced a major surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections in December 2022-January 2023, but its impact on mortality was unclear…

JYNNEOS™ effectiveness as post-exposure prophylaxis against mpox: Challenges using real-world outbreak data.

Author(s): Rosen JB, Arciuolo RJ, Pathela P, Boyer CB, Baumgartner J, Latash J, Malec L, Lee EH, Reddy V, King R, Edward Real J, Lipsitch M, Zucker JRJournal: VaccinePMID: 38218669 January 2024

JYNNEOS vaccine has been used as post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) during a mpox outbreak in New York City (NYC). Data on…

What’s next: using infectious disease mathematical modelling to address health disparities.

Author(s): Richard DM, Lipsitch MJournal: Int J EpidemiolPMID: 38145617 December 2023

Prediction of post-PCV13 pneumococcal evolution using invasive disease data enhanced by inverse-invasiveness weighting.

Author(s): Qiu X, McGee L, Hammitt LL, Grant LR, O'Brien KL, Hanage WP, Lipsitch MJournal: medRxivPMID: 38168234 December 2023

After introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), serotype replacement occurred in the population of Predicting which pneumococcal clones and serotypes…

Some principles for using epidemiologic study results to parameterize transmission models.

Author(s): Joshi K, Kahn R, Boyer C, Lipsitch MJournal: medRxivPMID: 37873220 October 2023

Infectious disease models, including individual based models (IBMs), can be used to inform public health response. For these models to…

Examining bias from differential depletion of susceptibles in vaccine effectiveness estimates in settings of waning.

Author(s): Kahn R, Feikin DR, Wiegand RE, Lipsitch MJournal: Am J EpidemiolPMID: 37771045 September 2023

Reduced effectiveness of repeat influenza vaccination: distinguishing among within-season waning, recent clinical infection, and subclinical infection

Author(s): Bi Q, Dickerman BA, McLean HQ, Martin ET, Gaglani M, Wernli KJ, Balasubramani GK, Flannery B, Lipsitch M, Cobey SJournal: medRxiv September 2023

Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees. This effect…

Reduced effectiveness of repeat influenza vaccination: distinguishing among within-season waning, recent clinical infection, and subclinical infection.

Author(s): Bi Q, Dickerman BA, McLean HQ, Martin ET, Gaglani M, Wernli KJ, Balasubramani GK, Flannery B, Lipsitch M, Cobey S, US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network InvestigatorsJournal: medRxivPMID: 37016669 September 2023

Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees. This effect…