Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Human Trypanosoma cruzi chronic infection leads to individual level steady-state parasitemia: Implications for drug-trial optimization in Chagas disease.

Author(s): De Salazar PM, Sosa-Estani S, Salvador F, Sulleiro E, Sánchez-Montalvá A, Ribeiro I, Molina I, Buckee COJournal: PLoS Negl Trop DisPMID: 36409773 November 2022

Currently available drugs against Trypanosoma cruzi infection, which causes 12000 deaths annually, have limitations in their efficacy, safety and tolerability.…

Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data.

Author(s): De Salazar PM, Lu F, Hay JA, Gomez-Barroso D, Fernandez-Navarro P, Martinez EV, Astray-Mochales J, Amillategui R, Garcia-Fulgueiras A, Chirlaque MD, Sanchez-Migallon A, Larrauri A, Sierra MJ, Lipsitch M, Simon F, Santillana M, Hernán MAJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 35358171 March 2022

When responding to infectious disease outbreaks, rapid and accurate estimation of the epidemic trajectory is critical. However, two common data…

Correction: Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt.

Author(s): Gostic KM, McGough L, Baskerville EB, Abbott S, Joshi K, Tedijanto C, Kahn R, Niehus R, Hay JA, De Salazar PM, Hellewell J, Meakin S, Munday JD, Bosse NI, Sherrat K, Thompson RN, White LF, Huisman JS, Scire J, Bonhoeffer S, Stadler T, Wallinga J, Funk S, Lipsitch M, Cobey SJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 34879070 December 2021

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008409.].

The association between gold mining and malaria in Guyana: a statistical inference and time-series analysis.

Author(s): De Salazar PM, Cox H, Imhoff H, Alexandre JSF, Buckee COJournal: Lancet Planet HealthPMID: 34627477 October 2021

Guyana reported a significant rise in malaria between 2008 and 2014. As there was no evidence of impairment of national…

High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities

Author(s): De Salazar PM, Link NB, Lamarca K, Santillana MJournal: Commun Med July 2021

Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the…

Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Author(s): Kishore N, Kahn R, Martinez PP, De Salazar PM, Mahmud AS, Buckee COJournal: Sci RepPMID: 33772076 March 2021

In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public's…

Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic.

Author(s): Menkir TF, Chin T, Hay JA, Surface ED, De Salazar PM, Buckee CO, Watts A, Khan K, Sherbo R, Yan AWC, Mina MJ, Lipsitch M, Niehus RJournal: Nat CommunPMID: 33436574 January 2021

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions of international outbreaks were largely based on imported cases from Wuhan, China, potentially missing…

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt.

Author(s): Gostic KM, McGough L, Baskerville EB, Abbott S, Joshi K, Tedijanto C, Kahn R, Niehus R, Hay JA, De Salazar PM, Hellewell J, Meakin S, Munday JD, Bosse NI, Sherrat K, Thompson RN, White LF, Huisman JS, Scire J, Bonhoeffer S, Stadler T, Wallinga J, Funk S, Lipsitch M, Cobey SJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 33301457 December 2020

Estimation of the effective reproductive number Rt is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus…

Lockdown measures and relative changes in the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain.

Author(s): De Salazar PM, Gomez-Barroso D, Pampaka D, Gil JM, Penalver B, Fernandez-Escobar C, Lipsitch M, Larrauri A, Goldstein E, Hernán MAJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 33081851 October 2020

During the first months of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in 2020, Spain implemented an initial lockdown period on March 15 followed…

Addendum: Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

Author(s): Wu JT, Leung K, Kishore N, Niehus R, De Salazar PM, Cowling BJ, Lipsitch M, Leung GMJournal: Nat MedPMID: 32661399 May 2020

On 17 April 2020, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission revised the official COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan up by 1,290…