Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Author(s): Kishore N, Kahn R, Martinez PP, De Salazar PM, Mahmud AS, Buckee COJournal: Sci RepPMID: 33772076 March 2021

In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public's…

Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data.

Author(s): De Salazar PM, Lu F, Hay JA, Gomez-Barroso D, Fernandez-Navarro P, Martínez E, Astray-Mochales J, Amillategui R, Garcia-Fulgueiras A, Chirlaque MD, Sanchez-Migallon A, Larrauri A, Sierra MJ, Lipsitch M, Simon F, Santillana M, Hernán MAJournal: medRxivPMID: 33532788 January 2021

Designing public health responses to outbreaks requires close monitoring of population-level health indicators in real-time. Thus, an accurate estimation of…

Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic.

Author(s): Menkir TF, Chin T, Hay JA, Surface ED, De Salazar PM, Buckee CO, Watts A, Khan K, Sherbo R, Yan AWC, Mina MJ, Lipsitch M, Niehus RJournal: Nat CommunPMID: 33436574 January 2021

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions of international outbreaks were largely based on imported cases from Wuhan, China, potentially missing…

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt.

Author(s): Gostic KM, McGough L, Baskerville EB, Abbott S, Joshi K, Tedijanto C, Kahn R, Niehus R, Hay JA, De Salazar PM, Hellewell J, Meakin S, Munday JD, Bosse NI, Sherrat K, Thompson RN, White LF, Huisman JS, Scire J, Bonhoeffer S, Stadler T, Wallinga J, Funk S, Lipsitch M, Cobey SJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 33301457 December 2020

Estimation of the effective reproductive number Rt is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus…

Lockdown measures and relative changes in the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain.

Author(s): De Salazar PM, Gomez-Barroso D, Pampaka D, Gil JM, Penalver B, Fernandez-Escobar C, Lipsitch M, Larrauri A, Goldstein E, Hernán MAJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 33081851 October 2020

During the first months of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in 2020, Spain implemented an initial lockdown period on March 15 followed…

Addendum: Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

Author(s): Wu JT, Leung K, Kishore N, Niehus R, De Salazar PM, Cowling BJ, Lipsitch M, Leung GMJournal: Nat MedPMID: 32661399 May 2020

On 17 April 2020, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission revised the official COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan up by 1,290…

Using observational data to quantify bias of traveller-derived COVID-19 prevalence estimates in Wuhan, China.

Author(s): Niehus R, De Salazar PM, Taylor AR, Lipsitch MJournal: Lancet Infect DisPMID: 32246905 April 2020

The incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, has been estimated using imported case counts of international travellers,…

Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions.

Author(s): De Salazar PM, Niehus R, Taylor A, Buckee CO, Lipsitch MJournal: Emerg Infect DisPMID: 32207679 March 2020

Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection exported from mainland China could lead to self-sustained outbreaks in…

Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

Author(s): Wu JT, Leung K, Bushman M, Kishore N, Niehus R, De Salazar PM, Cowling BJ, Lipsitch M, Leung GMJournal: Nat MedPMID: 32284616 March 2020

As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these,…

Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases.

Author(s): De Salazar PM, Niehus R, Taylor A, Buckee C, Lipsitch MJournal: medRxivPMID: 32511458 February 2020

Cases from the ongoing outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exported from mainland China can…