Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Author(s): Mathis SM, Webber AE, León TM, Murray EL, Sun M, White LA, Brooks LC, Green A, Hu AJ, Rosenfeld R, Shemetov D, Tibshirani RJ, McDonald DJ, Kandula S, Pei S, Yaari R, Yamana TK, Shaman J, Agarwal P, Balusu S, Gururajan G, Kamarthi H, Prakash BA, Raman R, Zhao Z, Rodríguez A, Meiyappan A, Omar S, Baccam P, Gurung HL, Suchoski BT, Stage SA, Ajelli M, Kummer AG, Litvinova M, Ventura PC, Wadsworth S, Niemi J, Carcelen E, Hill AL, Loo SL, McKee CD, Sato K, Smith C, Truelove S, Jung SM, Lemaitre JC, Lessler J, McAndrew T, Ye W, Bosse N, Hlavacek WS, Lin YT, Mallela A, Gibson GC, Chen Y, Lamm SM, Lee J, Posner RG, Perofsky AC, Viboud C, Clemente L, Lu F, Meyer AG, Santillana M, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore Y Piontti A, Vespignani A, Xiong X, Ben-Nun M, Riley P, Turtle J, Hulme-Lowe C, Jessa S, Nagraj VP, Turner SD, Williams D, Basu A, Drake JM, Fox SJ, Suez E, Cojocaru MG, Thommes EW, Cramer EY, Gerding A, Stark A, Ray EL, Reich NG, Shandross L, Wattanachit N, Wang Y, Zorn MW, Aawar MA, Srivastava A, Meyers LA, Adiga A, Hurt B, Kaur G, Lewis BL, Marathe M, Venkatramanan S, Butler P, Farabow A, Ramakrishnan N, Muralidhar N, Reed C, Biggerstaff M, Borchering RKJournal: Nat CommunPMID: 39060259 July 2024

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons,…

A prospective real-time transfer learning approach to estimate Influenza hospitalizations with limited data

Author(s): Meyer AG, Lu F, Clemente L, Santillana MJournal: medRxiv July 2024

Accurate, real-time forecasts of influenza hospitalizations would facilitate prospective resource allocation and public health preparedness. State-of-the-art machine learning methods are…

Fine-Grained Forecasting of COVID-19 Trends at the County Level in the United States.

Author(s): Song TH, Clemente L, Pan X, Jang J, Santillana M, Lee KJournal: medRxivPMID: 38293076 March 2024

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has profoundly impacted various aspects of daily life, society, healthcare systems, and global health policies. This…

Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.

Author(s): Stolerman LM, Clemente L, Poirier C, Parag KV, Majumder A, Masyn S, Resch B, Santillana MJournal: Sci AdvPMID: 36652520 January 2023

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to affect the world, and the design of strategies to curb disease outbreaks requires close…

Predicting dengue incidence leveraging internet-based data sources. A case study in 20 cities in Brazil.

Author(s): Koplewitz G, Lu F, Clemente L, Buckee C, Santillana MJournal: PLoS Negl Trop DisPMID: 35073316 January 2022

The dengue virus affects millions of people every year worldwide, causing large epidemic outbreaks that disrupt people's lives and severely…

A dynamic, ensemble learning approach to forecast dengue fever epidemic years in Brazil using weather and population susceptibility cycles.

Author(s): McGough SF, Clemente L, Kutz JN, Santillana MJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 34129785 June 2021

Transmission of dengue fever depends on a complex interplay of human, climate and mosquito dynamics, which often change in time…

An early warning approach to monitor COVID-19 activity with multiple digital traces in near real time.

Author(s): Kogan NE, Clemente L, Liautaud P, Kaashoek J, Link NB, Nguyen AT, Lu FS, Huybers P, Resch B, Havas C, Petutschnig A, Davis J, Chinazzi M, Mustafa B, Hanage WP, Vespignani A, Santillana MJournal: Sci AdvPMID: 33674304 March 2021

Given still-high levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and inconsistent transmission-containing strategies, outbreaks have continued to emerge across the…

Real-time forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak in Chinese provinces: Machine learning approach using novel digital data and estimates from mechanistic models.

Author(s): Poirier C, Liu D, Clemente L, Ding X, Chinazzi M, Vespignani A, Santillana MJournal: J Med Internet ResPMID: 32730217 July 2020

The inherent difficulty to identify and monitor emerging outbreaks caused by novel pathogens can lead to their rapid spread; and…

A machine learning methodology for real-time forecasting of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak using Internet searches, news alerts, and estimates from mechanistic models.

Author(s): Liu D, Clemente L, Poirier C, Ding X, Chinazzi M, Vespignani A, Santillana MJournal: ArXivPMID: 32550248 April 2020

We present a timely and novel methodology that combines disease estimates from mechanistic models with digital traces, via interpretable machine-learning…