Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Estimating the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States using influenza surveillance, virologic testing, and mortality data: Four complementary approaches.

Author(s): Lu FS, Nguyen AT, Link NB, Molina M, Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Xiong X, Vespignani A, Lipsitch M, Santillana MJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 34138845 June 2021

Effectively designing and evaluating public health responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic requires accurate estimation of the prevalence of COVID-19…

An early warning approach to monitor COVID-19 activity with multiple digital traces in near real time.

Author(s): Kogan NE, Clemente L, Liautaud P, Kaashoek J, Link NB, Nguyen AT, Lu FS, Huybers P, Resch B, Havas C, Petutschnig A, Davis J, Chinazzi M, Mustafa B, Hanage WP, Vespignani A, Santillana MJournal: Sci AdvPMID: 33674304 March 2021

Given still-high levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and inconsistent transmission-containing strategies, outbreaks have continued to emerge across the…

Real-time forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak in Chinese provinces: Machine learning approach using novel digital data and estimates from mechanistic models.

Author(s): Poirier C, Liu D, Clemente L, Ding X, Chinazzi M, Vespignani A, Santillana MJournal: J Med Internet ResPMID: 32730217 July 2020

The inherent difficulty to identify and monitor emerging outbreaks caused by novel pathogens can lead to their rapid spread; and…

A machine learning methodology for real-time forecasting of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak using Internet searches, news alerts, and estimates from mechanistic models.

Author(s): Liu D, Clemente L, Poirier C, Ding X, Chinazzi M, Vespignani A, Santillana MJournal: ArXivPMID: 32550248 April 2020

We present a timely and novel methodology that combines disease estimates from mechanistic models with digital traces, via interpretable machine-learning…