Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Estimating the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States using influenza surveillance, virologic testing, and mortality data: Four complementary approaches.

Author(s): Lu FS, Nguyen AT, Link NB, Molina M, Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Xiong X, Vespignani A, Lipsitch M, Santillana MJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 34138845 June 2021

Effectively designing and evaluating public health responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic requires accurate estimation of the prevalence of COVID-19…

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil.

Author(s): Castro LA, Generous N, Luo W, Pastore Y Piontti A, Martinez K, Gomes MFC, Osthus D, Fairchild G, Ziemann A, Vespignani A, Santillana M, Manore CA, Del Valle SYJournal: PLoS Negl Trop DisPMID: 34019536 May 2021

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and…

An early warning approach to monitor COVID-19 activity with multiple digital traces in near real time.

Author(s): Kogan NE, Clemente L, Liautaud P, Kaashoek J, Link NB, Nguyen AT, Lu FS, Huybers P, Resch B, Havas C, Petutschnig A, Davis J, Chinazzi M, Mustafa B, Hanage WP, Vespignani A, Santillana MJournal: Sci AdvPMID: 33674304 March 2021

Given still-high levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and inconsistent transmission-containing strategies, outbreaks have continued to emerge across the…

Real-time forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak in Chinese provinces: Machine learning approach using novel digital data and estimates from mechanistic models.

Author(s): Poirier C, Liu D, Clemente L, Ding X, Chinazzi M, Vespignani A, Santillana MJournal: J Med Internet ResPMID: 32730217 July 2020

The inherent difficulty to identify and monitor emerging outbreaks caused by novel pathogens can lead to their rapid spread; and…

A machine learning methodology for real-time forecasting of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak using Internet searches, news alerts, and estimates from mechanistic models.

Author(s): Liu D, Clemente L, Poirier C, Ding X, Chinazzi M, Vespignani A, Santillana MJournal: ArXivPMID: 32550248 April 2020

We present a timely and novel methodology that combines disease estimates from mechanistic models with digital traces, via interpretable machine-learning…

The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China.

Author(s): Kraemer MUG, Yang CH, Gutierrez B, Wu CH, Klein B, Pigott DM, Open COVID-19 Data Working Group., du Plessis L, Faria NR, Li R, Hanage WP, Brownstein JS, Layan M, Vespignani A, Tian H, Dye C, Pybus OG, Scarpino SVJournal: SciencePMID: 32213647 March 2020

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions have been undertaken to mitigate the…

Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases.

Author(s): Halloran ME, Auranen K, Baird S, Basta NE, Bellan SE, Brookmeyer R, Cooper BS, DeGruttola V, Hughes JP, Lessler J, Lofgren ET, Longini IM, Onnela JP, Özler B, Seage GR, Smith TA, Vespignani A, Vynnycky E, Lipsitch MJournal: BMC MedPMID: 29287587 December 2017

Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects…

Enhancing disease surveillance with novel data streams: challenges and opportunities.

Author(s): Althouse BM, Scarpino SV, Meyers LA, Ayers JW, Bargsten M, Baumbach J, Brownstein JS, Castro L, Clapham H, Cummings DA, Del Valle S, Eubank S, Fairchild G, Finelli L, Generous N, George D, Harper DR, Hébert-Dufresne L, Johansson MA, Konty K, Lipsitch M, Milinovich G, Miller JD, Nsoesie EO, Olson DR, Paul M, Polgreen PM, Priedhorsky R, Read JM, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Smith DJ, Stefansen C, Swerdlow DL, Thompson D, Vespignani A, Wesolowski AJournal: EPJ Data SciPMID: 27990325 January 2015

Novel data streams (NDS), such as web search data or social media updates, hold promise for enhancing the capabilities of…