Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Evaluation of post-introduction COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness: Summary of interim guidance of the World Health Organization.

Author(s): Patel MK, Bergeri I, Bresee JS, Cowling BJ, Crowcroft NS, Fahmy K, Hirve S, Kang G, Katz MA, Lanata CF, L'Azou Jackson M, Joshi S, Lipsitch M, Mwenda JM, Nogareda F, Orenstein WA, Ortiz JR, Pebody R, Schrag SJ, Smith PG, Srikantiah P, Subissi L, Valenciano M, Vaughn DW, Verani JR, Wilder-Smith A, Feikin DRJournal: VaccinePMID: 34119350 June 2021

Phase 3 randomized-controlled trials have provided promising results of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, ranging from 50 to 95% against symptomatic disease…

Addendum: Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

Author(s): Wu JT, Leung K, Kishore N, Niehus R, De Salazar PM, Cowling BJ, Lipsitch M, Leung GMJournal: Nat MedPMID: 32661399 May 2020

On 17 April 2020, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission revised the official COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan up by 1,290…

Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

Author(s): Wu JT, Leung K, Bushman M, Kishore N, Niehus R, De Salazar PM, Cowling BJ, Lipsitch M, Leung GMJournal: Nat MedPMID: 32284616 March 2020

As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these,…

Case-based surveillance of antimicrobial resistance with full susceptibility profiles.

Author(s): Ryu S, Cowling BJ, Wu P, Olesen S, Fraser C, Sun DS, Lipsitch M, Grad YHJournal: JAC Antimicrob ResistPMID: 32280945 December 2019

Surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is essential for clinical decision-making and for public health authorities to monitor patterns in resistance…

The use of test-negative controls to monitor vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review of methodology.

Author(s): Chua H, Feng S, Lewnard JA, Sullivan SG, Blyth CC, Lipsitch M, Cowling BJJournal: EpidemiologyPMID: 31609860 October 2019

The test-negative design is an increasingly popular approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) due to its efficiency. This review aims…

Accounting for unobserved and differential susceptible time at risk in retrospective studies: response to Dean (2019).

Author(s): Lewnard JA, Tedijanto C, Cowling BJ, Lipsitch MJournal: Am J EpidemiolPMID: 30689694 February 2019

Measurement of Vaccine Direct Effects Under the Test-Negative Design.

Author(s): Lewnard JA, Tedijanto C, Cowling BJ, Lipsitch MJournal: Am J EpidemiolPMID: 30099505 December 2018

Test-negative designs are commonplace in assessments of influenza vaccination effectiveness, estimating this value from the exposure odds ratio of vaccination…

Zika vaccine trials.

Author(s): Lipsitch M, Cowling BJJournal: SciencePMID: 27609872 September 2016

Utilizing syndromic surveillance data for estimating levels of influenza circulation.

Author(s): Patterson-Lomba O, Van Noort S, Cowling BJ, Wallinga J, Gomes MG, Lipsitch M, Goldstein EJournal: Am J EpidemiolPMID: 24748609 June 2014

The availability of weekly Web-based participatory surveillance data on self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI), defined here as self-reported fever and cough/sore…

Searching for sharp drops in the incidence of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza by single year of age.

Author(s): Jacobs JH, Archer BN, Baker MG, Cowling BJ, Heffernan RT, Mercer G, Uez O, Hanshaoworakul W, Viboud C, Schwartz J, Tchetgen Tchetgen E, Lipsitch MJournal: PLoS OnePMID: 22876316 January 2012

During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (pH1N1), morbidity and mortality sparing was observed among the elderly population; it was hypothesized that…