Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

Author(s): Yang W, Zhang W, Kargbo D, Yang R, Chen Y, Chen Z, Kamara A, Kargbo B, Kandula S, Karspeck A, Liu C, Shaman JJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 26559683 November 2015

Understanding the growth and spatial expansion of (re)emerging infectious disease outbreaks, such as Ebola and avian influenza, is critical for…

Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong.

Author(s): Yang W, Cowling BJ, Lau EH, Shaman JJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 26226185 July 2015

Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in…

Inference of seasonal and pandemic influenza transmission dynamics.

Author(s): Yang W, Lipsitch M, Shaman JJournal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S APMID: 25730851 March 2015

The inference of key infectious disease epidemiological parameters is critical for characterizing disease spread and devising prevention and containment measures.…

Comparison of filtering methods for the modeling and retrospective forecasting of influenza epidemics.

Author(s): Yang W, Karspeck A, Shaman JJournal: PLoS Comput BiolPMID: 24762780 April 2014

A variety of filtering methods enable the recursive estimation of system state variables and inference of model parameters. These methods…

Influenza forecasting in human populations: a scoping review.

Author(s): Chretien JP, George D, Shaman J, Chitale RA, McKenzie FEJournal: PLoS OnePMID: 24714027 April 2014

Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize…

The 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City: age-specific timing, mortality, and transmission dynamics.

Author(s): Yang W, Petkova E, Shaman JJournal: Influenza Other Respir VirusesPMID: 24299150 March 2014

The 1918 influenza pandemic caused disproportionately high mortality among certain age groups. The mechanisms underlying these differences are not fully…

Does exposure to poultry and wild fowl confer immunity to H5N1?

Author(s): Wan Y, Jeffrey SJournal: Chin Med J (Engl)PMID: 25266536 January 2014

Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012-2013 season.

Author(s): Shaman J, Karspeck A, Yang W, Tamerius J, Lipsitch MJournal: Nat CommunPMID: 24302074 January 2013

Recently, we developed a seasonal influenza prediction system that uses an advanced data assimilation technique and real-time estimates of influenza…

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

Author(s): Shaman J, Karspeck AJournal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S APMID: 23184969 December 2012

Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of…