Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

A dynamic, ensemble learning approach to forecast dengue fever epidemic years in Brazil using weather and population susceptibility cycles.

Author(s): McGough SF, Clemente L, Kutz JN, Santillana MJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 34129785 June 2021

Transmission of dengue fever depends on a complex interplay of human, climate and mosquito dynamics, which often change in time…

The evolution of antibiotic resistance in a structured host population.

Author(s): Blanquart F, Lehtinen S, Lipsitch M, Fraser CJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 29925579 June 2018

The evolution of antibiotic resistance in opportunistic pathogens such as , or is a major public health problem, as infection…

Exploring the role of competition induced by non-vaccine serotypes for herd protection following pneumococcal vaccination.

Author(s): Masala GL, Lipsitch M, Bottomley C, Flasche SJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 29093131 November 2017

The competitive pressure from non-vaccine serotypes may have helped pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to limit vaccine-type (VT) serotype prevalence. We…

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance.

Author(s): Cobey S, Baskerville EB, Colijn C, Hanage W, Fraser C, Lipsitch MJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 28835542 August 2017

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance…

Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination.

Author(s): Wesolowski A, Mensah K, Brook CE, Andrianjafimasy M, Winter A, Buckee CO, Razafindratsimandresy R, Tatem AJ, Heraud JM, Metcalf CJJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 27122178 April 2016

Few countries in Africa currently include rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) in their immunization schedule. The Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI)…

Dissecting the determinants of malaria chronicity: why within-host models struggle to reproduce infection dynamics.

Author(s): Childs LM, Buckee COJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 25673299 March 2015

The duration of infection is fundamental to the epidemiological behaviour of any infectious disease, but remains one of the most…

The impact of biases in mobile phone ownership on estimates of human mobility.

Author(s): Wesolowski A, Eagle N, Noor AM, Snow RW, Buckee COJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 23389897 February 2013

Mobile phone data are increasingly being used to quantify the movements of human populations for a wide range of social,…

Vaccine allocation in a declining epidemic.

Author(s): Goldstein E, Wallinga J, Lipsitch MJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 22772378 November 2012

Sizeable quantities of 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (H1N1pdm) vaccine in the USA became available at the end of 2009 when…

Population structure in the Neisseria, and the biological significance of fuzzy species.

Author(s): Corander J, Connor TR, O'Dwyer CA, Kroll JS, Hanage WPJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 22072450 June 2012

Phenotypic and genetic variation in bacteria can take bewilderingly complex forms even within a single genus. One of the most…

What is the mechanism for persistent coexistence of drug-susceptible and drug-resistant strains of Streptococcus pneumoniae?

Author(s): Colijn C, Cohen T, Fraser C, Hanage W, Goldstein E, Givon-Lavi N, Dagan R, Lipsitch MJournal: J R Soc InterfacePMID: 19940002 June 2010

The rise of antimicrobial resistance in many pathogens presents a major challenge to the treatment and control of infectious diseases.…