Publications – Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Depletion-of-susceptibles bias in influenza vaccine waning studies: how to ensure robust results.

Author(s): Lipsitch M, Goldstein E, Ray GT, Fireman BJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 31774051 November 2019

Vaccine effectiveness studies are subject to biases due to depletion-of-persons at risk of infection, or at especially high risk of…

Modelling the epidemiologic impact of achieving UNAIDS fast-track 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets in South Africa.

Author(s): Abuelezam NN, McCormick AW, Surface ED, Fussell T, Freedberg KA, Lipsitch M, Seage GRJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 30869008 August 2019

UNAIDS established fast-track targets of 73% and 86% viral suppression among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals by 2020 and 2030,…

On the role of different age groups during pertussis epidemics in California, 2010 and 2014.

Author(s): Mahmud AS, Lipsitch M, Goldstein EJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 31063110 January 2019

There is limited information on the roles of different age groups in propagating pertussis outbreaks, and the temporal changes in…

Measles outbreak risk in Pakistan: exploring the potential of combining vaccination coverage and incidence data with novel data-streams to strengthen control.

Author(s): Wesolowski A, Winter A, Tatem AJ, Qureshi T, Engø-Monsen K, Buckee CO, Cummings DAT, Metcalf CJEJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 29860954 September 2018

Although measles incidence has reached historic lows in many parts of the world, the disease still causes substantial morbidity globally.…

The role of symptomatic presentation in influenza A transmission risk.

Author(s): Wardell R, Prem K, Cowling BJ, Cook ARJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 27916020 March 2017

Computer models can be useful in planning interventions against novel strains of influenza. However such models sometimes make unsubstantiated assumptions…

Quantifying homologous and heterologous antibody titre rises after influenza virus infection.

Author(s): Freeman G, Perera RA, Ngan E, Fang VJ, Cauchemez S, Ip DK, Peiris JS, Cowling BJJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 27018720 August 2016

Most influenza virus infections are associated with mild disease. One approach to estimate the occurrence of influenza virus infections in…

Real-time estimation of the hospitalization fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Hong Kong.

Author(s): Wong JY, Wu P, Lau EH, Tsang TK, Fang VJ, Ho LM, Cowling BJJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 27125572 June 2016

During the early stage of an epidemic, timely and reliable estimation of the severity of infections are important for predicting…

Regression approaches in the test-negative study design for assessment of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Author(s): Bond HS, Sullivan SG, Cowling BJJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 26732691 June 2016

Influenza vaccination is the most practical means available for preventing influenza virus infection and is widely used in many countries.…

Assessment of the severity of Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone in 2014-2015.

Author(s): Wong JY, Zhang W, Kargbo D, Haque U, Hu W, Wu P, Kamara A, Chen Y, Kargbo B, Glass GE, Yang R, Cowling BJ, Liu CJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 27029911 May 2016

The current Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa is unprecedented in scale, and Sierra Leone is the most…

Analysis of potential changes in seriousness of influenza A and B viruses in Hong Kong from 2001 to 2011.

Author(s): Wong JY, Wu P, Goldstein E, Lau EH, Ip DK, Wu JT, Cowling BJJournal: Epidemiol InfectPMID: 25703399 March 2015

Continued monitoring of the seriousness of influenza viruses is a public health priority. We applied time-series regression models to data…