COVID-19 Publications

CCDD faculty are providing cutting-edge data, tools, and policy recommendations in the fight against COVID-19. Explore what they have shared and discovered below. Entries are listed in reverse chronological order and updated weekly.

July 2020

- 7/2/20: Making sense of mutation: what D614G means for the COVID-19 pandemic remains unclear
  - Nathan D. Grubaugh, William P. Hanage, Angela L. Rasmussen
- 7/2/20: Lockdown measures and relative changes in the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain
  - Pablo Martinez de Salazar, Diana Gomez-Barroso, Despina Pampaka, Josep Maria Gil, Belen Penalver, Carlos Fernandez-Escobar, Marc Lipsitch, Amparo Larrauri, Edward Goldstein, Miguel Hernan
- 7/1/20: An Early Warning Approach to Monitor COVID-19 Activity with Multiple Digital Traces in Near Real-Time
  - Nicole E. Kogan, Leonardo Clemente, Parker Liautaud, Justin Kaashoek, Nicholas B. Link, Andre T. Nguyen, Fred S. Lu, Peter Huybers, Bernd Resch, Clemens Havas, Andreas Petutschnig, Jessica Davis, Matteo Chinazzi, Backtosch Mustafa, William P. Hanage, Alessandro Vespignani, Mauricio Santillana
- 7/1/20: Quantifying the impact of US state non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission
  - Hannah M Korevaar, Alexander David Becker, Ian F Miller, Bryan T Grenfell, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Michael J Mina

June 2020

- 6/27/20: Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 surveillance
  - Daniel B Larremore, Bryan Wilder, Evan Lester, Soraya Shehata, James M Burke, James A Hay, Milind Tambe, Michael J Mina, Roy Parker
- 6/23/20: Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt
  - Katelyn M Gostic, Lauren McGough, Edward Baskerville, Sam Abbott, Keya Joshi, Christine Tedijanto, Rebecca Kahn, Rene Niehus, James A Hay, Pablo M. De Salazar, Joel Hellewell, Sophie Meakin, James Munday, Nikos Bosse, Katharine Sherratt, Robin M Thompson, Laura F White, Jana Huisman, Jérémie Scire, Sebastian Bonhoeffer, Tanj Stadler, Jacco Wallinga, Sebastian Funk, Marc Lipsitch, Sarah Cobey
- 6/23/20: SARS-CoV-2 titers in wastewater foreshadow dynamics and clinical presentation of new COVID-19 cases
  - Fuqing Wu, Amy Xiao, Jianbo Zhang, Katya Moniz, Noriko Endo, Federica Armas, Richard Bonneau, Megan A Brown, Mary Bushman, Peter R Chai, Claire Duvallet, Timothy B Erickson, Katelyn Foppe, Newsha Ghaeli, Xiaoqiong Gu, William P Hanage, Katherine H Huang, Wei Lin Lee, Mariana Matus, Kyle A McElroy, Jonathan Nagler, Steven F Rhode, Mauricio Santillana, et al.
- 6/22/20: Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys
  - Daniel B Larremore, Bailey K Fosdick, Kate M Bubar, Sam Zhang, Stephen M Kissler, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Caroline Buckee, Yonatan Grad
- 6/18/20: Estimating the Early Outbreak Cumulative Incidence of COVID-19 in the United States: Three Complementary Approaches
  - Fred S Lu, Andre T Nguyen, Nicholas B Link, Marc Lipsitch, Mauricio Santillana
- 6/16/20: Seroepidemiologic Study Designs for Determining SARS-COV-2 Transmission and Immunity
  - Hannah Clapham, James Hay, Isobel Routledge, Saki Takahashi, Marc Choisy, Derek Cummings, Bryan Grenfell, C Jessica E Metcalf, Michael Mina, Isabel Rodriguez Barraquer, Henrik Salje, Clarence C Tam
- 6/10/20: Patients With Cancer Appear More Vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2: A Multicenter Study During the COVID-19 Outbreak
  - Mengyuan Dai, Dianbo Liu, Miao Liu, Fuxiang Zhou, Guiling Li, Zhen Chen, Zhian Zhang, Hua You, Meng Wu, Qichao Zheng, Yong Xiong, Huihua Xiong, Chun Wang, Changchun Chen, Fei Xiong, Yan Zhang, Yaqin Peng, Siping Ge, Bo Zhen, Tingting Yu, Ling Wang, Hua Wang, Yu Liu, Yeshan Chen, Junhua Mei, Xiaojia Gao, Zhuyan Li, Lijuan Gan, Can He, Zhen Li, Yuying Shi, Yuwen Qi, Jing Yang, Daniel G. Tenen, Li Chai, Lorelei A. Mucci, Mauricio Santillana and Hongbing Cai
- 6/8/20: A Global Immunological Observatory to meet a time of pandemics
  - Michael J Mina, C Jessica E Metcalf, Adrian B McDermott, Daniel C Douek, Jeremy Farrar, Bryan T Grenfell
- 6/7/20: The State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey (Report #4)
  - Katherine Ognyanova, Roy H. Perlis, Matthew A. Baum, David Lazer, James Druckman, Mauricio Santillana, John Della Volpe
- 6/2/20: Building an International Consortium for Tracking Coronavirus Health Status
  - Eran Segal, Feng Zhang, Xihong Lin, Gary King, Ophir Shalem, Smadar Shilo, William E. Allen, Faisal Alquaddoomi, Han Altae-Tran, Simon Anders, Ran Balicer, Tal Bauman, Ximena Bonilla, Gisel Booman, Andrew T. Chan, Ori Cohen, Silvano Coletti, Natalie Davidson, Yuval Dor, David A. Drew, Olivier Elemento, Georgina Evans, Phil Ewels, Joshua Gale, Amir Gavrieli, Benjamin Geiger, Yonatan H. Grad, et al.

May 2020

- 5/27/20: The State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey (Report #3: Support for Vote by Mail)
  - Matthew A. Baum, Katherine Ognyanova, David Lazer, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, James Druckman, Mauricio Santillana
- 5/25/20: COVID-19 Preparedness in Malawi: A National Facility-Based Critical Care Assessment
  - Paul D Sonenthal, Jones Masiye, Noel Kasomekera, Regan H Marsh, Emily B Wroe, Kirstin W Scott, Ruoran Li, Megan B Murray, Alice Bukhman, Emilia Connolly, Tadala Minyaliwa, Martha Katete, Grace Banda, Mulinda Nyirenda, Shada A Rouhani
- 5/22/20: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
  - Stephen M. Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, Edward Goldstein, Yonatan H. Grad, Marc Lipsitch
- 5/22/20: The State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey (Report #2)
  - Matthew A. Baum, Katherine Ognyanova, David Lazer, John Della Volpe, Roy H. Perlis, James Druckman, Mauricio Santillana
- 5/21/20: To Interpret the SARS-CoV-2 Test, Consider the Cycle Threshold Value
  - Michael Tom, Michael Mina
- 5/20/20: Individual quarantine versus active monitoring of contacts for the mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study
  - Corey M. Peak, Rebecca Kahn, Yonatan Grad, Lauren Childs, Ruoran Li, Marc Lipsitch
- 5/19/20: Phylogenetic interpretation during outbreaks requires caution
  - Ch. Julián Villabona-Arenas, William P. Hanage, Damien C. Tully
- 5/19/20: Serology for SARS-CoV-2: Apprehensions, opportunities, and the path forward
  - Michael J. Mina, Juliet E. Bryant, Andrew S. Azman, Matthew J. Ferrari, Benjamin F. Arnold, Maciej F. Boni, Yap. Boum, Kyla Hayford, Francisco J. Luquero, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Joseph T. Wu, Djibril Wade, Guy Vernet and Daniel T. Leung
- 5/15/20: Wrong but Useful — What COVID-19 Epidemiologic Models Can and Cannot Tell Us
  - Inga Holmdahl, Caroline Buckee
- 5/14/20: Leveraging Africa’s preparedness towards the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic
  - Madikay Senghore, Merveille K Savi, Bénédicte Gnangnon, William P Hanage, Iruka N Okeke
- 5/11/20: Human Challenge Studies to Accelerate Coronavirus Vaccine Licensure
  - Nir Eyal, Marc Lipsitch, Peter G. Smith
- 5/8/20: Reductions in commuting mobility predict geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City
  - Stephen M. Kissler, Nishant Kishore, Malavika Prabhu, Dena Goffman, Yaakov Beilin, et al.
- 5/6/20: Statistical Properties of Stepped Wedge Cluster-Randomized Trials in Infectious Disease Outbreaks
  - Lee Kennedy-Shaffer, Marc Lipsitch
- 5/6/20: Efficient prevalence estimation and infected sample identification with group testing for SARS-CoV-2
  - Brian Cleary, James A Hay, Brendan Blumenstiel, Stacey Gabriel, Aviv Regev, Michael J Mina
- 5/6/20: Testing COVID-19 therapies to prevent progression of mild disease
  - Marc Lipsitch, Stanley Perlman, Matthew K Waldor
- 5/6/20: Implications of test characteristics and population seroprevalence on ‘immune passport’ strategies
  - Daniel B. Larremore, Kate M. Bubar, Yonatan Grad
- 5/6/20: Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China
  - Ruoran Li, Caitlin Rivers, Qi Tan, Megan B Murray, Eric Toner, Marc Lipsitch
- 5/6/20: Potential biases arising from epidemic dynamics in observational seroprotection studies
  - Rebecca Kahn, Lee Kennedy-Shaffer, Yonatan Grad, James Robins, Marc Lipsitch
- 5/4/20: Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China
  - Shengjie Lai, Nick W. Ruktanonchai, Liangcai Zhou, Olivia Prosper, Wei Luo, Jessica R. Floyd, Amy Wesolowski, Mauricio Santillana, Chi Zhang, Xiangjun Du, Hongjie Yu, Andrew J. Tatem
- 5/1/20: The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
  - Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Chia-Hung Yang, Bernardo Gutierrez, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Brennan Klein, David M. Pigott, Open COVID-19 Data Working Group, Louis du Plessis, Nuno R. Faria, Ruoran Li, William P. Hanage, et al.
- 5/20: Reopening Scenarios
  - David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi, Michael J. Mina, James H. Stock

April 2020

- 4/30/20: Temporal rise in the proportion of younger adults and older adolescents among coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases following the introduction of physical distancing measures, Germany, March to April 2020
  - Edward Goldstein, Marc Lipsitch
- 4/28/20: Coronavirus: sampling now for future analysis
  - David Thaler, Marc Lipsitch
- 4/27/20: Antibody testing will enhance the power and accuracy of COVID-19-prevention trials
  - Marc Lipsitch, Rebecca Kahn, Michael Mina
- 4/23/20: The risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the healthcare setting and potential impact of cohorting strategies
  - Joel C. Miller, Xueting Qiu, William P Hanage
- 4/23/20: Mobile phone data analysis guidelines: applications to monitoring physical distancing and modeling COVID-19
  - Nishant Kishore, Mathew Kiang, Kenth Engø-Monsen, Navin Vembar, Satchit Balsari, Caroline Buckee
- 4/21/20: Fever and mobility data indicate social distancing has reduced incidence of communicable disease in the United States
  - Parker Liautaud, Peter Huybers, Mauricio Santillana
- 4/14/20: COVID-19 Positive Cases, Evidence on the Time Evolution of the Epidemic or An Indicator of Local Testing Capabilities? A Case Study in the United States
  - Justin Kaashoek, Mauricio Santillana
- 4/11/20: U.S. County-Level Characteristics to Inform Equitable COVID-19 Response
  - U.S. county-level characteristics to inform equitable COVID-19 response – Comparison App
  - Taylor Chin, Rebecca Kahn, Ruoran Li, Jarvis T. Chen, Nancy Krieger, Caroline O. Buckee, Satchit Balsari, Mathew V. Kiang
- 4/11/20: Modeling the impact of human mobility and travel restrictions on the potential spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Taiwan
  - Meng-Chun Chang, Rebecca Kahn, Yu-An Li, Cheng-Sheng Lee, Caroline O Buckee, Hsiao-Han Chang
- 4/10/20: Aggregated mobility data could help fight COVID-19
  - Caroline O. Buckee, Satchit Balsari, Jennifer Chan, Mercè Crosas, Francesca Dominici, Urs Gasser, Yonatan H. Grad, Bryan Grenfell, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Marc Lipsitch, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Lauren Ancel Meyers, T. Alex Perkins, Mauricio Santillana, et al.
- 4/8/20: A machine learning methodology for real-time forecasting of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak using Internet searches, news alerts, and estimates from mechanistic models
  - Dianbo Liu, Leonardo Clemente, Canelle Poirier, Xiyu Ding, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T Davis, Alessandro Vespignani, Mauricio Santillana
- 4/7/20: SARS-CoV-2 titers in wastewater are higher than expected from clinically confirmed cases
  - Fuqing Wu, Amy Xiao, Jianbo Zhang, Xiaoqiong Gu, Wei Lin Lee, Kathryn Kauffman, William Hanage, Mariana Matus, Newsha Ghaeli, Noriko Endo, Claire Duvallet, Katya Moniz, Timothy Erickson, Peter Chai, Janelle Thompson, Eric Alm
- 4/6/20: Nowcasting by Bayesian Smoothing: A flexible, generalizable model for real-time epidemic tracking
  - Bayesian Nowcasting R Package (“NobBS”)
  - Sarah F. McGough, Michael A. Johansson, Marc Lipsitch, Nicolas A. Menzies
- 4/1/20: Using observational data to quantify bias of traveller-derived COVID-19 prevalence estimates in Wuhan, China
  - Rene Niehus, Pablo M De Salazar, Aimee Taylor, Marc Lipsitch
- 4/20: Considering Public Purpose in the Time of COVID-19
  - Colin O’Leary, Amritha Jayanti, Michael Mina

March 2020

- 3/31/20: Estimating case fatality rates of COVID-19
  - Marc Lipsitch
- 3/31/20: Ethical Comparators in Coronavirus Vaccine Trials
  - Nir Eyal, Marc Lipsitch
- 3/30/20: Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases exported internationally from all of China
  - Tigist Ferede Menkir, Taylor Chin, James A Hay, Erik Surface, Pablo Martinez de Salazar, Caroline Buckee, Michael J Mina, Kamran Khan, Alexander Watts, Marc Lipsitch, Rene Niehus
- 3/26/20: Implications of the Age Profile of the Novel Coronavirus
  - James A. Hay, David J. Haw, William P. Hanage, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Michael J. Mina
- 3/26/20: Defining the Epidemiology of COVID-19 — Studies Needed
  - Marc Lipsitch, David L. Swerdlow, Lyn Finelli
- 3/24/20: Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions
  - Pablo M De Salazar, Rene Niehus, Aimee Taylor, Caroline O Buckee, Marc Lipsitch
- 3/24/20: Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic
  - Stephen Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, Marc Lipsitch, Yonatan Grad
- 3/19/20: Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China
  - Addendum
  - Joseph T. Wu, Kathy Leung, Mary Bushman, Nishant Kishore, Rene Niehus, Pablo M. de Salazar, Benjamin J. Cowling, Marc Lipsitch, Gabriel M. Leung
- 3/12/20: The Role of Environmental Factors on Transmission Rates of the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Initial Assessment in Two Spatial Scales
  - Canelle Poirier, Wei Luo, Maimuna S. Majumder, Dianbo Liu, Kenneth Mandl, Todd Mooring, Mauricio Santillana

February 2020

- 2/25/20: Scenario exploration for SARS-CoV-2 infections
  - Developed by the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health: Rebecca Kahn, Stephen Kissler, Nishant Kishore, Marc Lipsitch, in collaboration with Health Department colleagues
- 2/17/20: The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak
  - Wei Luo, Maimuna S Majumder, Dianbo Liu, Canelle Poirier, Kenneth D Mandl, Marc Lipsitch, Mauricio Santillana
- 2/11/20: Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases
  - Pablo M De Salazar, Rene Niehus, Aimee Taylor, Caroline O Buckee, Marc Lipsitch

Blogs

- Protecting the Public’s Health During Protests Against Systemic Racism
  - CCDD students, post-docs, faculty, and alumni
- Mutation, Adaptation, and Virus Genomes – A Primer for the Public
  - W.P. Hanage, Xueting Qiu
  - Translation in Mandarin available here.
- nCOV – Making Sense of an Epidemic
  - Tweetorial by Rebecca Kahn (@rebeccajk13)
  - Translations available in Korean, Mandarin, French and Spanish
- Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?
  - - Marc Lipsitch
- Journalists and Scientists – Working Together on COVID-19
  - - William Hanage, Marc Lipsitch